JISE


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Journal of Information Science and Engineering, Vol. 39 No. 4, pp. 809-823


How Deep Learning Affect Price Forecasting of Agricultural Supply Chain?


FEI JIANG1, XIAO YA MA2,+, YI YI LI3, JIAN XIN LI4, WEN LIANG CAO4,
JIN TONG2, QIU YAN CHEN2, HAI-FANG CHEN2 AND ZI XUAN FU2
1Guangxi International Business Vocational College, Nanning, China
1School of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Law, Taylor’s University
Subang Jaya, 47500 Selangor, Malaysia

1Department of Logistics Management and Engineering
Nanning Normal University, Nanning, 530023 China
E-mail: 461425403@qq.com

2Department of Logistics Management and Engineering, Nanning Normal University
2Guangxi Key Lab of Human-machine Interaction and Intelligent Decision
2Nanning Normal University, Nanning, 530023 China
E-mail: drxyma@nnnu.edu.cn
+; 1016769101@qq.com
3Department of Logistics, Guangxi Vocational and Technical College, Nanning, Guangxi, 530023 China
E-mail: 642823264@qq.com

4School of Electronics Information, Dongguan Polytechnic
Dongguan, Guangdong, 518172 China
E-mail: 279149042@qq.com; caowl22@163.com


Due to the many factors that affect commodity prices, price forecasting has become a problematic research point. With the development of machine learning and artificial in-telligence, some advanced ensemble algorithms and deep learning prediction methods based on time series have high accuracy and robustness. These algorithms have gradually become the inevitable choice for solving price prediction problems. Based on the National Bureau of Statistics of China data from January 2012 to December 2021, this study pro-poses deep learning combined forecasting model based on neural networks to predict wheat prices and fill the research gap in agricultural product price forecasting. Researchers utilize Python and Selenium to realize the automatic data acquisition of web pages to achieve the purpose of data collection and calculation. The final price result curve pre-dicted by the price prediction model based on LSTM deep learning agrees with the actual price curve, and the mean square error MSE is only 0.00026. It shows that this prediction model based on time series influenced by multiple factors has an excellent application prospect in price prediction.


Keywords: machine learning, agricultural products, agricultural supply chain, BP-LSTM, price forecasting

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